Now that things have settled down a bit from the caflamistry between the USA and Iran of the past two weeks, it is time for me to write a followup to my piece at https://blog.burble.ca/2020/01/05/so-is-everybody-ready-for-the-third-world-war/#more-66
I should send it off to @caitoz’s project as well. It cannot be emphasized enough that sitting on a cloud and acting above it all is not a grown up reaction to the present day dangers. No, it is not all going to change by enough people sending out enough cosmic vibrations to dissolve the badness.
Ending the conditions which are driving the world to calamity on multiple fronts is going to require people to get off the clouds and get themselves a brain. Enough people need to stop thinking they are getting their heads out of ‘The Matrix’ when they are just being herded into a bigger one. How many people actually got the point of the Matrix movies?
In the real world, there is a limit to what people can do to defeat the system that oppresses them, even if they are aware there is something wrong with the world around them. The American people are very intensely controlled. They will not be able to break out of the narrative matrices around them until it all collapses around their ears. Even then, there will have to be a sufficient core of people with the right ideas who can build something better.
This breakdown is coming. The American and other western countries ruling classes are being steadily defeated. Their systems are starting to fail them. Two large centres of alternative power, and some smaller ones, have emerged. These ones offer a real alternative to the old systems of hegemony.
The only way the old elites, especially the globalists or neoMalthusians/ neofeudalists can prevent this is by starting a war. To start the war they have to find some way to get subordinated factions in the oligarchies in the USA and the western nations and allies to go along with it or be forced into it. The industrialist and techno-industrialist sections of the oligarchy know that such a war would likely destroy them.
These sections of the oligarchy, who depend on actually making things and doing things and have some connection with reality, are not great beneficiaries of humanity but they are not crazy. The globalists have learned to make money from nothing and have lost all connection with reality. They are insane and will start a war which could wipe out the planet If they are able to.
Standing in their way are the above mentioned techno-industrial oligarchies and these rising powers, run by sane and pragmatic leaders. They come out of a great variety of belief systems, and many of them are no great friends of humanity, but they are trying to prevent a global war.
While not united in any common strategy, all in all they are doing a pretty good job of containing the globalist maniacs and draining away the sources of their power. The globalists are flailing away in an ever shrinking box.
The recent crisis between the USA and Iran is the latest example of how US power is being contained and diminished. The whole thing was concerning, but the outcome has been encouraging and enlightening. It seems Trump is not so much under the thumb of the globalists as is imagined. The Iranians are also more sophisticated that is generally thought.
So Trump droned an Iranian war hero, the Iranians blasted an American base, and a Ukrainian airliner got shot down over Iran. The thermonuclear shit failed to hit the fan. Sane people were able to apprehend the situation and defuse it.
As a few astute observers have noticed, this affair has many parallels to the Cuban missile crisis of 1963. It was there that president Kennedy learned the hard way that the US foreign and defence establishments could not be trusted in a crisis. An American president has to have people around him he can trust, who could give him a ‘back channel’ way of communicating with the leaders of the other nuclear powers.
Subsequent American presidents for the rest of the cold war did not forget this. This system, often called the “hot line” headed off at least two confrontations between the US and USSR. There might not be a livable planet now if not for this. It started to be forgotten about after the fall of the USSR, when the US thought it had won and everybody thought the nuclear war peril was over.
The US deep state did not forget or forgive Kennedy for thwarting them. But they had to accept this restraint on them. Yet they were not prepared to be dismantled, as Kennedy wished to do. That is why he was assassinated.
Now, the US dominant oligarchy linked with the Deep State has grown even more aggressive and vicious. Recent American presidents have completely forgotten about back channel diplomacy and are captured by the globalists. These globalists are frantic for a confrontation with Russia.
As I have said, Trump does not want to start a world war and does not think the US should be quarrelling with Russia. He has the problem of being a lone wolf with no ties to any faction. He has a lot of corrupt business dealings which he has to keep secret. He is the wrong type of personality for the position he is in. He has been unable to build a loyal staff around himself and has been dependent on apparatchiks from different factions of the deep state.
With the Iranian crisis, he seems to have finally figured this out. He now has a low profile foreign policy group in the white house who can handle back channel diplomacy. Of course they keep a very low profile, otherwise their lives will be made very difficult. This is also what the endless “Russia! Russia! Russia!” and “Impeach Trump” Is all about; cutting off any hotline system with the nations the oligarchy wants to start a war with.
Back channel diplomacy worked very well with Iran. It was run through the Swiss foreign service. Iran retaliated in a smart way, sending advanced warning to Trump so he had no surprises and could not be manipulated by false information from his official staff.
The base in Iraq had an hour’s advance warning to get everybody under cover. Iran then took out some buildings with very precise missile strikes, causing a lot of damage to the US drone operations in the country. This demonstrated how effective their rocket force could be. The US base’s defence batteries either declined to stop the attack, or could not. There were either no casualties, or some people with brain injuries from shock wave, or plenty of casualties which the US military kept secret.
Then, making it even more interesting, right after this attack the Iranians shot down a Ukrainian airliner as it took off from Tehran airport. It seems the airliner went off course without communicating to the tower what it was doing. It was headed for some sort of Iranian military installation. In the panicky situation as an American counterattack was being expected, somebody shot it down.
This accident may have been partly caused by some electronic war measures of the Americans, disrupting Iranian communications, or maybe not. The conspiracy minded commentators always jump on this kind of thing like a dog on a bone, pointing out all the inconsistencies in the different narratives, while not really understanding the larger significance or lack of significance of the event.
Maybe it was some sort of very elaborate western intelligence false flag op, or maybe not. Maybe the Iranians are more embarrassed by the US being able to spoof its radar defences deep in its territory than of having to admit it goofed and shot down an airliner. Or failed to do the smart thing and close down all flights until the crisis was over. Or maybe not. If there was real evidence of a false flag, the Iranians would likely have found it and would have had motives to reveal it.
Whatever happened, it does not change the larger situation much. The Iranians did the smart thing by just admitting error. Even the Ukrainian President told everybody to calm down and wait for clear evidence. Even Trump said; “maybe somebody made a mistake”. Alas, our illustrious Prime Minister of Canada disgraced himself yet again as a yapping little poodle for the globalist establishment.
So, beneath the surface effects of bullroaring from Trump and the Iranians, quiet diplomacy prevailed. The immediate crisis passed. Trump seems to be slowly getting it that bluff and bully might work in business but not in diplomacy. The long term effect of catalyzing an Iraqi determination to have US troops out of their country will work itself out.
The Iraqis have the problem that the US federal reserve holds its revenues. This can be solved by a determined government with popular backing. It would help if allies such as China or Qatar provided it with bridging loans. The Iraqi government and public need to grow some new brain circuits and come to a mutual understanding that; the Iraqi government is not the public’s enemy and should be the solution, not the problem, and that the public will support the government if it provides competent leadership.
The writing is on the wall. The US will be levered out of the middle east. Its behaviour is growing beyond tolerance. The question is, what will the globalists do when they realize they have lost control. As always, there is the danger of them doing something really crazy and getting a nuclear holocaust going.
Again, it is up to sane people to contain them until their power collapses and the nuclear forces can be stood down. They need to be supported in this, the single most critical issue of these times. This is why all the nonsense about how “The Trump Administration” did this or did that, is so unhelpful. It is the US deep state and its appendages in other countries, under its globalist masters, which do. This is the enemy.
To further demonstrate this, ask yourself what a President Bernie Sanders would have been able to do in a similar situation. Sanders has publicly advocated a less belligerent and more “evidence based” foreign policy. He would be able to find and retain a better and more loyal staff. He would still have had to accept deep state people in his administration.
Sanders would likely not have been gulled into the Soliemani attack as easily as Trump was, but one way or another he would be maneuvered into a situation where he would have to order an attack, or be accused of failing to protect American forces or interests or whatever. Then he would end up having to use some back channel diplomacy to smooth things over.
There is little to do about the US deep state but to gradually remove its capacity to act. If Trump, or a president Sanders or any other future president tries to outright shut down anything the deep state is doing, he is going to get the one way trip to Dallas. Yet even the Pentagon is getting very tired of deep state; of being put into endless and unwinnable situations.
Iraq has now ordered the US to get out within one year. The US command in Iraq issued a statement that it would comply, then immediately after withdrew the statement, calling it a mistake. All clued in participants in the crisis got the message about what the US military really thinks; Iran, Iraq, Trump, and probably even the globalists/deep state.
Consider a president Clinton. Killery Dillery would have ordered a nuclear strike into Iran at the drop of a hat and she would have dropped the hat. As a die hard globalist she would have gone all out to break all resistance to global domination. If that would not end in a nuclear doomsday it would end in some sort of military coup or revolt against Clinton so as to avoid one.
When the globalist deep state finally collapses, the industrial capitalists in alliance with the Pentagon, will likely take full control of US society. This would be grim for the American subordinate classes, and the US foreign policy would still be fairly belligerent. Yet these people would be sane enough to understand that they cannot risk a nuclear war.
They would also understand that they have to have an industrial base in the country. This would be the time to begin advocating for a new type of social order. But “The Left” in the US of A has become so muddle headed, so full of story telling, that it will take some time for an effective movement for socialism to develop.
By the way, it is still as Rosa Luxembourg put it; “it is either socialism or barbarism.” We all live under barbarism and mostly think like barbarians.
The problem with most socialist revolutions has been that the leaders have not been very competent at building a post oligarchic or post capitalist order. That requires a higher level of thinking than people usually learn under oligarchic systems. That is not about finding other stories to tell ourselves, or “cloud sitting”; going off into a big nothing and thinking you are becoming enlightened. Getting to a fully adult way of thinking which can make a really socialist society work is about learning how to build an ever deeper understanding of the real world around you. But I am not trying to become some sort of guru here.
What I will continue to be concerned about is the need to dissolve the globalist/neoMalthusian hegemony and its danger to human life. That means in practise that I will support the multipolar world order lead by states with a commitment to international law and to improving the quality of life for all people.
Believe it or not, there are some nation states which are trying to go in that direction. They are precisely the ones targeted by the globalist power. It is these entities which will have to succeed if humankind is to survive.
Meanwhile, where I live, and I think where most people who will read this live, there is little to do but await the collapse of globalism. The potential to build a socialist society is still some ways off. But there are still things which we can do.
The big thing is to start developing a realistic model of a better world, which people can start to relate to. Next is to develop human capacity for true scientific thinking; to understand real problems and find real solutions. Telling people to reject establishment narratives without anything else to show them, is not useful.
And with that I come full circle and my musings are concluded. My aim has been to try to get people to think a little better about present realities and develop a more useful approach to them.