The Covid-19 pandemic is the perfect start into what I will call ‘The Turbulent Twenties’. Already it is catalyzing some of the disintegration and collapse which will mark this decade. It has accelerated the economic failures leading to a prolonged depression. It is showing that the Globalist governments around the world are incapable of governing. It is showing that countries run with a high degree of economic and social control and discipline are better able to prosper and provide its people’s needs in this century.
What I am talking about
I have here some concepts I will have to clarify for readers who are not getting enough information outside of the ‘media silos’. That means social media as well as news media. Yikes! There is a lot to explain to people whose analytical abilities are limited and whose time to spend seeking real independent news sources is limited. It is too much for just one blog article, but I can get a start at it if people start tuning into my blog project.
There is this thing called globalism. It can be thought of as a branch of the thing called capitalism. Capitalism has been going on in one way or another for a long time. It is a specific type of oligarchic system; rule by a powerful elite in their own interests, rather than rule of a state by some other sort of sovereign power, sometimes in the interests of the society as a whole.
Under capitalism, the oligarchs are the people with control of some significant wealth, some capital. They control assets, capital, to extract maximum value for themselves. They can force those without capital to work for them, rent from them, buy from them and can extract maximum value from them.
People in western societies tend to think they live in a democracy; rule of a state by the people for their own interests. Obviously, capitalism would immediately collapse under a real democracy. However, there is such a thing as civil society or more generally, civilization, which capitalism has to work within. Civil society generally forces oligarchy to give enough back into society to keep civilization going.
In most western societies, especially in the post war period from 1945, the public has been strong enough to force capitalist oligarchies to redistribute enough of their wealth so that most people can live a reasonably secure and enjoyable existence. That condition has been under threat recently as there have been changes in the kind of capitalism which dominates. There is some discussion about what we are changing into and if it could even be called capitalism anymore.
People in these times still see capitalism mostly as the form called industrial capitalism. That is, dominance by those who own the means of production and its ancillaries. However, financial capitalism has really been predominant for a long time. That is, dominance by those who control the means to issue money and credit.
Globalism is about the desire of some of the more powerful sections of the finance capitalist oligarchy to take complete control over the world. Toward that they need to eliminate nation states and civil society, anything getting in their way. They do not see manufacturing as important; just an ancillary to finance and ownership of property including, recently, “intellectual property”. That is, copyrights and patents. They are increasingly turning things which have become essential to running the world, and which should be in the public domain, into “intellectual property”.
The globalists are behind the claim that the world is heading for a climate catastrophe, the earth is heating up due to carbon dioxide emissions, and the fossil fuel industry must be shut down. This is utterly stupid, refuted by half an hour of thought and checking some basic scientific facts. If you have a massive propaganda machine, you can get the public to go along with almost anything. A few unbalanced personalities will become fanatic true believers and truthism enforcers, and most people will go along with it even if they sense there is something fishy about it.
Behind the climate claims is the extreme misanthropism of the members of this global elite, and their servants and sycophants. They talk about the human race like it is a disease on the earth. We are using up the planet’s resources and need to be culled. Some of them even put up the famous “guidestones” declaring a need to maintain the world’s population at half a billion. They cannot admit that it is they, or rather the economic system they bring about, which is the destroyer of the earth and its ability to support life. They want earth’s resources reserved for them alone, with a limited population which can produce what they want. They want the world divided up into domains from which they can extract rent. In other words, they want a new form of feudalism.
The other significant faction of the global oligarchy are the industrial capitalists. They continue the idea that ‘human ingenuity’ and ‘free enterprise’ will allow for infinite expansion in a finite world. There is an obvious conflict between them and the financial capitalists, but they are not in a dominant position. However, President Trump is more or less allied with them.
In their struggles for control, these factions have created cliques among the public in western countries, especially the United States. It is progressing to the point of street battles between the “deplorables” and the “snowflakes” or “leftists”; or natonalists/industrialists versus Globalist/financialists. Framing this as a fight between “left” and “right” wings, socialists versus conservatives, is ridiculous. Both these factions are right wing.
A real “left”, which is what the “developed” world really needs, has been efficiently suppressed for a long time by both factions of the oligarchy, mostly by infiltration and disruption. In recent years the idea of socialism is re-emerging but is still up against huge efforts to suppress, confuse, and disorganize.
The present situation
Now the capitalist oligarchies are at the end of their rope. There are few new sources of monopoly profits as resources become more limited and new international powers emerge. China in particular has learned how to run an efficient, non capitalist economy and is becoming the new economic centre of the world. Russia has managed to get a full generation ahead of the USA in military technology, including nuclear forces.
The dominance of the USA depended largely on having the world’s “reserve currency”, the dollar. Everyone had to buy dollars in order to trade across borders. The USA controlled the international money transfer system. It used its massive military to enforce use of the dollar. Any country which tried to set up some other currency as a medium of exchange was attacked and destroyed. The “exorbitant privilege” of the dollar enables the USA to fund its war machine partly by making other countries pay for it.
It has been seen for awhile that this situation is coming to an end. Other media, means, vectors, are being developed by which trade can take place. Countries all over the world are becoming able to stand up to the USA and manage their economies for the benefit of their citizens. A split is even starting to develop between the USA and the European Union.
In North America and Western Europe, the financial economy is coming to a dead end. It is still preventing the kind of reform which will enable the rise of a new form of industrial economy. This is causing severe hardships for the citizens. It is less severe in the EU, whose older member states generally have well developed social provision systems.
Before COVID-19 reared its head, the US economy was already going into a severe recession, caused by unsustainable levels of corporate debt, in turn caused by declining consumer demand. This in turn is caused by rising costs of living as speculators drive up the cost of housing. This is because the investor class has too much money to play with, but will not invest it into increasing productivity, and because they cannot be taxed properly.
Most of the people reading this already have the general idea. The world economy is set up for a new recession, and needs only a trigger event. It is now clear that COVID-19 will be that trigger.
The financial capitalists do not seem to have much problem with slowing the economies down for a few months. It will give them a cover for the economic collapse which will follow as they just walk away from the mess they have created. They have even forgotten about the “climate” trope for now.
It is the US industrial capitalists who are hysterical about the slowdown. Much of the remaining industry there will go under if the economy shuts down for a few months. The industrial sectors of the Europeans countries and Canada are better positioned to ride it out.
So we are now hearing a lot of propaganda from the “conservative” faction in the USA against the shut down. Some funny arithmetic is used to prove that the pandemic is not really that serious; really just a bad flu. The measures being used are disproportionate to the real threat. “Let’s use common sense and get back to living!”,says one of these jokers.
There are few more skeptical than me of any officially generated panic, but I am sure the COVID-19 is a real threat. The measures being used against it are not excessive but rather, generally inadequate. A big problem is as expressed in this quote form another somewhat right leaning commentator;
“The political/media class is largely responsible for its own inability to get the public to take this pandemic seriously. You can’t constantly lie to people about important issues their entire lives and then expect them to suddenly trust you.”
Another issue is whether the COVID-19 is artificially created and the outbreak was a deliberate effort at biological warfare. There are some interesting pieces on the net about it. Read further if you wish.
I think that the virus itself comes from some sort of germ warfare experiment at Fort Detrick, Maryland. Analysis of its RNA shows it came about when two North American strains of flu somehow fused. However, using Murphy’s law, to never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity, I will assume its release was an accident.
Fort Detrick was recently shut down by the local health authorities as a threat to public safety. It seems all sorts of strange diseases kept breaking out in its neighbourhood. However, some soldiers training somewhere near Fort Detrick subsequently went to Wuhan, China to participate in some sort of “military games” event. They stayed at a hotel close to this meat market which figured so prominently in accounts of the origins of the virus. Some employees of said hotel also had connections with this market. A number of the hotel’s employees came down with COVID-19 before the people at the meat market.
Take the “Fort Detrick flu” very serious, people. Follow all directions of public health authorities where you are. It is a very powerful virus which seems to get more potent as it multiplies through many hosts. It will likely keep going until a vaccine is found, which will take a year to a year and a half. The vaccine will be only partly effective.
“A great empire shall fall…”
When COVID-19 has run its course, the world will be a very different place. As I said, it is a starting point to what will be a very wild decade. I do not generally make exact predictions, but I think I can do some general forecasts. The main thread is that there will be a serious global depression starting this year. I say depression, not recession.
The USA will be hit very hard. There will be major civil unrest. There will be a huge wave of bankruptcies. The federal financial apparatus will deploy various tricks to bail out failed businesses and write down their debts. Even the Global financial capitalists cannot afford to let the Nationalist Industrial capitalists just go under.
However, business people all over the world will continue to lose confidence in the US dollar. The move away from money transfer systems run by the USA will accelerate. Yet for awhile there are still a lot of people who see the yankee buck as the ultimate secure haven and will keep buying and holding the US dollar as an investment.
Nonetheless, in the next few years the value of the US dollar will decline. The US treasury will become unable to sell all its treasury bonds. It will have to resort to straight out “money printing” to fund itself. That, or raise domestic taxes substantially.
As China disconnects itself from the US economy, the latter will be unable to keep importing all its “Walmart” stuff at a low cost. The Chinese and some other countries feeding the US market will start refusing to accept US dollars without some other form of collateral.
At some point, the US will arrive at a crunch where it cannot raise enough money to keep itself and its mighty military going. Then things will get very interesting.
Several Russian commentators, who lived through the 1990s in Russia, after bankruptcy of the Soviet Union, and some of whom live or have lived in the USA, say that the situation there reminds them of the last years of the Soviet Union. They think the US is going into a similar, but much more severe, collapse.
Do we go down with it?
What is really worrisome about this is the past history of the big financial families of solving their problems by starting a war. Many of the people still in control of large financial institutions are the descendants of the people who helped start the two world wars. They kept trying to do it again all during the “cold war” period of the sixtes and seventies. We were lucky enough to avoid an exchange of nuclear weapons with the old Soviet Union during that time.
A nuclear war could end life in earth. We may not continue to be lucky enough to avoid it during this new round of war mongering. We are at a point where these financial capitalists are going out and they are likely to to try take everything down with them.
Assuming these people leave without causing too much destruction on the way out, what will replace them? The industrial capitalists and their quasi-fascist devotees might try to make a revival of old style industrial capitalism. They will still be unable to compete with the forms of industrial organization being developed in China and other east asian countries.
Right wing business people are famous for always thinking they can run things better than “bureaucrats” and “socialists”. They always make a great mess of things. Thus, right wing quasi fascist or libertarian governments, in the US and some other places, will not last too long.
What follows after these people is the really big question. Some possible scenarios are a topic for some future blogs. We could have some kind of serious surveillance state tyranny but it will not last long if it can not actually run anything.
The left these days is totally fossilized; nothing to offer. One encouraging development is that some twenty somethings are starting to reinvent leftism, ignoring the ideas of the fossil left, and of the phoney left created by the globalists.
In western societies, economic dislocation and deterioration will be severe. Governments are going to have to resort to various measures to keep people from dying in large numbers; various schemes of “basic income” and ‘helicopter money”.
Things will be worst in the USA. Their ‘individualism’ ethic will make it harder for them to conceive what they really have to do to get out of their dilemma. Things will be better in Canada, where we are more inclined to look after each other. However, needed changes will be hampered here because Canadians still tend to trust the media and their governments. The necessary ‘revolution between the ears’ will only happen here after everywhere else.
Europe will be the first part of the western or Atlanticist world to get things right. They have a stronger social tradition, as well as an understanding of the need for occasional revolutions to bring about human progress.
By the end of the decade, the present totally outdated constitutions of the USA and Canada will have been scrapped. The American empire will end ignominiously. US troops will likely need the charity of the countries they have been occupying to get back home.
The repulsive European Union will be no more. It was set up by the American empire to keep the European nations down. Europeans are the most culturally advanced people on the planet and should not be underestimated. Once they are out from under the heel of imperialism they will begin testing out how a ‘direct democracy’ will work in a modern state. They will also be the first to come up with new forms of economic organization suitable for western nations.
So there is how I think the turbulent twenties will go. I think I have developed a pretty good crystal ball. This is what it is telling me. In 2030 you can show me this article and ask me how well I did as a futurologist.