It is now 75 years since that event. I have marked every anniversary for some time, though I am not part of any nuclear disarmament group.
These groups have been around for a long time, faded out a lot after the fall of the Soviet Union, and recently have been making a comeback. However, their approach has not changed since the 1960s and is not very useful. This is due to the usual problem, lack of any deeper analysis, in this case as to why we have nuclear arsenals.
Just doing a continuing kumbaya over the existence of the bomb and periodically setting the nuclear clock a second or two closer to midnight, is not going to make it all go away. Some people get off on this type of masochism.
Actually, the danger of nuclear war has been declining. The American power is on the decline. They are having a harder time causing any trouble. There is always a risk that some sort of “black swan” event can get out of hand, but we have survived the 60 years since the Soviets have been able to retaliate, and we have, I think, only a few more years to get through.
There are two things which concern me about the nuclear disarmament movement, besides its cult and masochism characteristics. There is the lack of insight into why we have nuclear weapons. But there is the assumption that any nuclear exchange is inevitably going to lead to all out war and the end of the planet.
This is a very wrong approach. First, it creates a kind of hopeless mentality, as in: ‘sooner or later it’s going to happen, we can’t do anything, it is the end of the world.’ Second, it discourages people from making any preparations to defend and sustain populations in the event of something short of a complete wipeout.
Actually, an all out war is not that likely. What is more likely is a limited exchange which can still have dire effects on the atmosphere. It will most likely start between two of the smaller nuclear powers.
I would say the Israelis are the most likely candidates to start something. They almost did it in 1973, when they were losing on the ground. The Egyptians decided it might be a better idea to let them win. I read how the Soviets twisted their arms to back off.
There are nine nuclear powers in the world. They seem to fall into two categories. One is where you have a strange ruling elite with the idea they have a right to rule and usually to expand their rule. The end of their power would be the end of the world for them so they would rather end the world that go away quietly.
This explains the force posture of some of these nuclear powers, which make no sense any other way. Uncle Sam in particular, leaves himself wide open to a first strike from Russia. He seems more concerned about an attack from one of the secondary powers, such as China.
The Israelis are similarly strange. They have no defence against any sort of counterstrike, but seem to have the idea of launching a first strike against Russia. They have a submarine launched force which can not be taken out, which could not be used for a first strike, but could be used for a retaliatory strike after their civilian population has already been wiped out.
Uncle Sam similarly has a submarine strategic nuclear force. The Russians seem to have got rid of theirs. This leads us to the disturbing conclusion that the USA and Israel elites give flying fuck about their civilian populations.
They could launch an attack and then threaten to retaliate with their undersea force if their cities were wiped out in retaliation. Yet if the enemy were already fried, that likely would not deter them from retaliating. But these elites may think they can destroy their enemies and hide out, and not have to care if their own people are erased.
This kind of tactic is becoming less viable as technology of counter missile forces improves. The Russians now have by far the best technology and their Prometheus system, now being rolled out, would stop a submarine launched attack, which would be slower and lower than a ground launch attack which would go above the atmosphere.
The Russkies and their Prometheus might even be able to stop that.
But to start a nuclear war the ruling elites will need to create a pretext. It is really hard to create that, regardless of what some hysterical people might thing. The military people running these weapons systems are not going to obey an order to just zap the Russians out of the blue, with a counterattack certain.
Well, maybe; if the ruling elite can get some of its more extreme ‘end timer’ religious maniacs, of which it has more than a few in its military, into exclusive control. But will the elites be able to control them afterward?
The other group of nuclear powers have their nukes because they are a target of other nuclear powers, being not willing to submit to them, and feel they need a deterrent. These would be North Korea, China, Pakistan, Russia and probably France. The aggressive nuclear powers are India, Israel, USA, and maybe Britain.
This raises the obvious question of, what if these aggressive powers decide to attack a non nuclear armed country? I am puzzled as to why so few people think about this possibility. If the USA elite wanted to force the Russians to do something and had enough control to be able to act like this, rather than attack Russia directly it could attack any country doing business with them.
Hello Germany; shut down Nordstream and stop selling BMWs to the Russkies or get Hamburg nuked. Or, hey everybody, stop buying from and selling to China or get it dropped on you.
They say the only reason Uncle Sam doesn’t irradiate Iran is because they could destroy Israel with conventional weapons. No one is sure just why Uncle Sam likes Israel so much. But Iran is famed for developing cheap, super accurate missiles which can be produced in huge numbers. The Israelis have discovered that this is a much bigger threat to them than Iran’s nuclear reactors.
Such a cheerful topic. But as I said, all this is going away soon. The USA economy is headed for collapse. They will run into a wall in the next few years, where they will be unable to finance themselves. That will be the end of their world domination.
The number one thing to worry about then will be complete collapse of the US military, with loss of control over the nuclear arsenal. Something like that happened after the breakup of the USSR.
The USA has more whack jobs per capital than anyplace on earth. What if some of them got control of some nuclear weapons? What would they decide to do with them?
Israel and the U.K. are both hollow countries propped up by the USA. When it goes away, then soon after so will their nuclear threats.
India is a hard one to figure out. They seem obsessed with China and to want their nuclear arsenal in order to threaten China. They keep getting into border conflicts with China, which they always lose. India is a country with a weird elite and an economy and political system that does not work well. They are also headed for a breakdown and some new kind of regime.
Most of the other nuclear countries would just as soon get rid of their nuclear weapons. They push the disarmament treaties forward, the war monger states, especially Uncle Sam, block them.
So, to start getting rid of nukes means mostly to wait for the fall of the USA. That clock is almost at noon. The nuclear war clock is moving away from midnight, not toward it.